Where is pork consumption headed?

Pork has maintained a prominent place in the diet of Spanish households for decades, consolidating itself as one of the most consumed and versatile proteins. Its combination of flavor, nutritional value, and culinary adaptability has made it a recurring choice in the shopping basket, while also ensuring consumers a balance between quality and price. However, the global outlook for pork consumption is undergoing significant changes that force every part of food chain to rethink market and production strategies.

Rising consumption in Spain

According to the data from the Consumption Panel of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA), pork accounts for 42% of all meat consumed in Spanish households, consolidating its leadership over other animal proteins. In terms of volume, total consumption of fresh pork and pork products exceeded 817,000 tons, a growth that consolidates the recovery initiated in 2023, when 807,600 tons were recorded after several years of decline.

Over the past year, fresh pork consumption increased by 3.5%, while processed pork products registered an increase of 0.8%. This momentum is not limited to volume but is also reflected in spending: Spanish households allocated €7.707 billion to pork and pork products, representing more than 47% of total spending on meat and 9.2% of total spending on food and beverages.

Growth shifts to Asia

While pork consumption remains strong in Spain, the global picture shows contrasts. According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033, global demand is expected to reach 131 million tons in carcass weight equivalent by 2033, which represents an annual growth of 0.5% compared with the 2021-2023 baseline (122 Mt).

However, this growth is uneven. Developing countries are increasing their consumption, while developed countries are reducing their dependence on pork. In this regard, global per capita consumption is projected to fall by 2% by 2033, reflecting the transition towards more varied diets in Western Europe and North America.

Among OECD member countries, the share of animal protein derived from pork declined by 5 percentage points between 1993 and 2023, a trend expected to continue.

The real engine of growth lies in Asia, where countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand are experiencing significant increases in pork consumption. Factors such as population growth, ongoing urbanization, improved purchasing power, and cultural preference for this protein explain this momentum. Even in countries with historically low consumption, such as India, increases are being observed in certain urban areas and communities.

On the other hand, Latin America is also emerging as a key region for the expansion of pork consumption. Per capita consumption is projected to increase by 1.3 kg per year by 2033, mainly due to its competitive price compared with other meats such as beef. This trend represents a strategic opportunity both for domestic markets and for exports to Asia, taking advantage of geographic proximity and the logistical benefits of the Panama Canal.

Competition and new consumption trends

Although pork maintains its leadership in several regions, it faces growing challenges. In middle- to upper-income markets such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, it is losing ground to poultry as well as to plant-based proteins. New dietary trends, such as flexitarianism or partial vegetarianism, are also affecting pork’s share of total meat protein. Between 1993 and 2023, these countries recorded a decline of 6 percentage points in the share of protein derived from pork.

Demographics and urbanization will play a decisive role in future consumption. By 2033, the world’s population is expected to reach 8.7 billion, with most of the increase occurring in low- and middle-income countries, where pork is seen as an emerging staple food. Urbanization facilitates access to modern distribution channels and fast-food chains, where pork plays a prominent role, while digitalization opens new opportunities to reach urban consumers with changing purchasing habits.