The new map of European pig production: Who is gaining, who is losing and why

The European pork map has changed significantly over the past decade. Spain has consolidated an increasingly clear leadership position, while Germany has lost some of the weight it historically held. Denmark, for its part, maintains a strong export-oriented specialization, France retains an important production base, and Poland has gained prominence despite having lived with African swine fever (ASF) for years. Behind these shifts are well-known factors such as costs, the availability of raw materials, business structure and export capacity, but one has acquired particularly strong influence: animal health and its consequences for trade.

The spread of ASF across Europe has altered herd sizes, trade flows and investment decisions. In 2025, outbreaks in domestic pigs recorded in the European Union increased by 76% compared with the previous year, while cases in wild boar rose by 44%. In addition, Spain recorded the disease again after more than three decades without cases, bringing the number of affected Member States to 14.

Understanding the future of the European pork sector therefore requires looking beyond production volumes. Leadership also depends on the ability to maintain animal health, retain market access and adapt to a scenario in which ASF can rapidly alter the balance between countries.

Spain at the forefront of the transformation of the European pork sector

Spain probably represents the most significant transformation in European pork production over the past decade. The country has consolidated its position as the leading producer of pork in the European Union, ahead of Germany, and has developed a powerful industry serving both the EU market and export destinations. This growth is the result of a combination of factors: a strong animal feed industry, a specialized production structure, integration across the supply chain, industrial capacity and a strong export orientation. This configuration has enabled Spain to increase production while other major producing countries have reduced their activity. For years, this was also supported by a favourable animal health situation with regard to ASF.

This advantage became particularly relevant from 2020 onwards, when Germany confirmed its first ASF cases and temporarily lost access to important Asian markets. Spanish exporters were able to occupy part of this space. The German episode demonstrated that competitiveness depends not only on the ability to produce, but also on the ability to place that production in the most attractive markets.

This scenario began to change at the end of 2025 with the detection of ASF in wild boar in Catalonia. The Spanish case once again highlighted that, in a sector so dependent on exports, animal health is also a commercial factor. In this regard, the detection of the disease triggered different responses from international markets: some applied the principle of regionalisation and kept imports from unaffected areas open, while others opted for broader restrictions.

Against this backdrop, Spain faces the challenge of preserving the efficiency that has underpinned its growth while also demonstrating that it can maintain a high level of disease control and guarantee access to foreign markets.

Germany and the cost of losing export markets

Germany’s evolution illustrates how a disease can alter a country’s position without necessarily causing an immediate decline in its production capacity. For years, Germany was one of the major reference points in European pork production, but its output fell considerably over the past decade, and ASF contributed to deepening this transformation.

The first case was confirmed in 2020. Although the direct impact on production was limited compared with other countries, the commercial consequences were much greater. Restrictions imposed by importing markets closed key destinations for German pork for a prolonged period, increasing pressure on the domestic market. The experience highlighted a fundamental issue for a sector so dependent on international trade: losing access to a market can be as significant as losing production capacity. When a country can no longer export, its products have to find alternative destinations, increasing domestic competition and pressure on neighbouring countries. At the same time, competitors maintaining favourable animal health status can fill the gap.

Although German production has begun to stabilise, regaining the international position it held before ASF is far more complex. Its experience shows that the economic consequences of a disease can persist long after its initial impact on production has disappeared.

ASF and its impact on Eastern Europe

Poland, Romania and other Eastern European countries present a different reality. In these markets, ASF has been shaping producers’ decisions and the structure of the sector for years. The disease has forced the industry to adapt production systems, strengthen biosecurity and modify animal movements.

EFSA data reflect the scale and spread of the phenomenon. In 2025, ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs recorded in the EU rose to 585, compared with 333 the previous year, with Romania accounting for 81% of these cases. The situation also deteriorated among wild boar populations, with 11,036 outbreaks compared with 7,677 in 2024. Poland and Germany together accounted for almost half of the recorded cases.

The impact, however, is not the same everywhere. In the areas most affected, the sector has had to adapt its production structure, strengthen biosecurity and modify live-animal flows. In Poland, for example, the spread of the disease contributed to a reduction in the arrival of piglets from Denmark. These changes are leading to a redistribution of pig production within Europe, as ASF not only causes animal losses but also influences where pigs are raised and slaughtered and how different markets are supplied.

Denmark, the Netherlands, and France: different models of competitiveness

Denmark’s case demonstrates that a country’s weight on the European pork map does not depend exclusively on its pork production volumes. Its specialisation in piglet production and its export orientation have enabled it to maintain a strategic position within the European supply chain, although the sector now faces some uncertainty over the possible tightening of environmental requirements and changes in agricultural policy, which could influence the size and structure of pig production in the coming years.

The Netherlands, meanwhile, faces a different scenario. Its high livestock density and territorial and environmental constraints limit opportunities for expansion, forcing the sector to compete through productivity, specialisation and efficiency. France, for its part, retains an important agricultural base and significant pork production, although it has not experienced the same growth as Spain.

These differences show that there is no single model of competitiveness for the European pork sector. Some countries can maintain or increase their weight through volume; others find opportunities in piglets, genetics or processing, while those facing greater territorial constraints will increasingly have to rely on efficiency.

Europe maintains its position in an increasingly competitive global market

The new European scenario is also unfolding within a more diversified and competitive global market. China has lost weight as a pork importer: its share of global pork imports fell from 43% in 2021 to 23% in 2025. The recovery of its breeding herd and improvements in productivity have brought the country closer to self-sufficiency, reducing its need to rely on international markets. Meanwhile, Mexico has become the world’s leading pork importer, while the Philippines and Vietnam continue to increase their purchases.

For Europe, this means maintaining a leading role, but in a more competitive environment. The EU remains the world’s largest pork exporter, although the United States is gradually closing the gap and Brazil is consolidating its position as the third-largest exporter, supported by competitive production costs and greater market diversification.

In this context, Europe will not be able to rely solely on its production capacity. Market diversification, regionalisation in response to ASF and the ability to offer higher-value products will become increasingly important. The future of the European pork sector will therefore depend on its ability to combine productivity, biosecurity and commercial competitiveness in a global market that is less dependent on China and increasingly shaped by new competitors.